An Open Letter to Public Option Opponents

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday July 18, 2009 · 5:55 AM PDT

2009/07/18 · 05:55

Dear Conservative Democrat XYZ,

I have long shared your fiscally conservative attitudes about deficits and the national debt. In my brief lifetime (not yet 19 years), the debt has risen from $3.2 trillion to nearly $12 trillion. When the government was able to establish a budget surplus by fiscal 1999 after years of careful spending reforms, we saw that surplus rapidly evaporate on the revenue-killing 2001 Bush tax cuts for the wealthy -- some of the most fiscally irresponsible legislation enacted in the last generation -- so that by fiscal 2002, the deficit had returned, and by 2003 had ballooned to levels never before seen.

Also like you, I believe in the power of the free market to solve any number of questions unsuitable for government statutes to address; I too relish the United States' traditional reputation as the only place on Earth where the Horatio Alger dream can still be fully realized.

Now, of course, we all find ourselves in a severe recession confronting daunting and expensive goals of economic recovery, health care reform, and energy independence.

Our shared interest in fiscal responsibility and a strong and stable free market is precisely why I am bewildered at your reticence to support the creation of a public health care option.

Poll

32 votes Show Results

Will the final enacted bill include a public option?

32 votes Vote Now!

Will the final enacted bill include a public option?

Yes

23 votes

9 votes

Senate 2010 outlook

Nathaniel Ament Stone

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday May 13, 2009 · 6:58 PM PDT

2009/05/13 · 18:58

It's been well over three months since my last Senate 2010 diary, and much has changed! Back then, stimulus legislation was still in the works, Arlen Specter was a Republican, budget-hatin' Judd Gregg was eager to join Obama's Cabinet, and Al Franken's Senate race was unresolved after a protracted fight in the courts (oh, wait...). The individual dynamics of certain Senate races (notably Connecticut, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Delaware) have shifted considerably since then, but my general take is still the same: Democrats are still favored for modest gains, with the likely result being a Democratic caucus, however fractious, of 61-63 seats.

Read individual rundowns below the fold...

Poll

152 votes Show Results

Senate in 2010

152 votes Vote Now!

Senate in 2010

Dems get a REAL filibuster-proof majority

90 votes

Like now, Dems keep a large but not reliable edge

41 votes

GOP gains a couple but is still far short of 51

16 votes

Lyndon LaRouche!

5 votes

Governors 2009-10 outlook

Nathaniel Ament Stone

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday May 01, 2009 · 9:53 AM PDT

2009/05/01 · 09:53

It's been a while since I wrote one of these, and foolishly, I penned this diary yesterday evening with little sense that something as dramatic as a Supreme Court retirement was mere hours on the horizon...alas!

Irrespective of the indisputably riveting SCOTUS chatter, let's start with the gov contests of 2009 before moving to 2010. Read about all 36 races below the fold...

Poll

63 votes Show Results

Overall gubernatorial effect, 2009-10

63 votes Vote Now!

Overall gubernatorial effect, 2009-10

Republicans pick up a handful

21 votes

Democrats pick up a handful

12 votes

Only minor changes from current 28-22 Dem edge

30 votes

Liveblog: Credit Card Reform (House)

Nathaniel Ament Stone

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday April 30, 2009 · 10:35 AM PDT

2009/04/30 · 10:35

The House today has been debating H.R. 627, the Credit Cardholders' Bill of Rights Act (sponsored by Rep. Carolyn Maloney), a sweeping reform of lending and credit card practices aimed at protecting the consumer and overhauling the Truth in Lending Act. In September of last year, the bill passed 312-112 in the House but subsequently died in the Senate. President Obama has endorsed the bill and Democrats seem hopeful that it will go all the way. Here's a summary of the debate until now:

11:39 AM: House agreed to H. Res. 379, the resolution governing debate for the bill, 249 - 175.

The rest below the fold...

Poll

36 votes Show Results

Will H.R. 627 make it into law?

36 votes Vote Now!

Will H.R. 627 make it into law?

No, it will die in the Senate

9 votes

Yes, but the Senate will have watered it down significantly

18 votes

Yes, and it will remain a fairly bold bill

9 votes

Redistricting 2011: Iowa & Ohio

Nathaniel Ament Stone

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday March 09, 2009 · 9:13 AM PDT

2009/03/09 · 09:13

Episode 3 in my series of diaries mapping out possible redistricting scenarios in the states is here! On the agenda today: Iowa and Ohio.

Previously covered:
Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas
Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada

Again, the obligatory grain of salt alert: my districts are based on county estimates from 2007 which are due to be adjusted soon with 2008 numbers. Also, I am using projected seat totals that are equally subject to change.

Much geekdom, nerdiness, and dorkery lies below the fold...

Nathaniel Ament Stone

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday March 04, 2009 · 9:24 AM PST

2009/03/04 · 09:24

Episode 2 in my series of diaries mapping out possible redistricting scenarios in the states has arrived! Today, I map Michigan and Nevada.

Grain of salt alert: my districts are based on county estimates from 2007 which are due to be adjusted soon with 2008 numbers. Also, I am using projected seat totals that are equally subject to change.

The number geeks among us will really enjoy what's below the fold...

Poll

64 votes Show Results

2010 elections - Michigan and Nevada

64 votes Vote Now!

2010 elections - Michigan and Nevada

Dems win redistricting trifecta in Michigan & Nevada

15 votes

Dems win in Michigan but not Nevada

4 votes

Dems win in Nevada but not Michigan

25 votes

Both states remain split

20 votes

Redistricting 2011: Mass. & Texas

Nathaniel Ament Stone

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday March 02, 2009 · 9:37 AM PST

2009/03/02 · 09:37

With the 2010 Census just a year away and the next round of nationwide redistricting two or three years away, I've decided to start looking at the redistricting situations in different states and begin some conversation about what kinds of changes we can expect to see. These diaries will be sporadic, and the data is always subject to change (for now, county population estimates are from 2007; 2008 numbers will be out soon, meaning my number-crunching will need constant adjusting)...but for we super-geeks, merely the discussion of redistricting and speculation on its effects will be sufficiently entertaining.

My "state focus" redistricting diaries will cover two states, usually one large and one a bit smaller.

Today, I was feeling the vibes of 2004, so we'll delve into Massachusetts and Texas. Below the fold...

Poll

85 votes Show Results

Texas' four new seats:

85 votes Vote Now!

Texas' four new seats:

It won't gain four; probably three instead.

11 votes

Two Democrats, two Republicans

22 votes

Three Republicans, one Democrat

17 votes

Three Democrats, one Republican

14 votes

All Republicans

11 votes

All Democrats

10 votes

Redistricting Fights Start Now

Nathaniel Ament Stone

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday February 27, 2009 · 8:10 PM PST

2009/02/27 · 20:10

There are quite a few important fronts to be covered in the 2010 midterm elections. Not only do we want to reach a filibuster-proof majority of 60-odd seats in the Senate, but the greedy among us wouldn't mind a few more House seats as well. What happens in Congress will be largely contingent on President Obama's success over the next 20 months.

But the super-geeks, the number-crunchers, and the Census nuts (you know who you are, and you can count me among your ranks...) know that 2010 features another, nearly as important and possibly longer-lasting, political grudge-match of significance. The 2010 elections will determine...well, everything...about what happens in the next round of nationwide redistricting.

Pretty maps and food for thought below the fold...

Poll

53 votes Show Results

I will have redistricting in mind during the 2010 cycle

53 votes Vote Now!

I will have redistricting in mind during the 2010 cycle

I'll help my state's gubernatorial candidate

15 votes

I'll help my state Dems with state legislative races

18 votes

Other local action (e.g. I live in Florida and will work for the redistricting reform amendment)

2 votes

I live in a state that won't figure much into redistricting, so will help folks in another state

17 votes

I don't care about redistricting

1 vote

Senate 2010: The Year We Make Contact?

Nathaniel Ament Stone

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday February 06, 2009 · 10:11 AM PST

2009/02/06 · 10:11

Here it is, my third look at the Senate races of 2010, a cycle in which Democrats look to top that always-seductive 60, and Republicans look to...well, prevent that.

Perhaps recent debates about the economic recovery plan have reminded all of us just how important Senate margins are (as if we ever forgot). While the House is a generally partisan chamber in which the majority party more or less gets its way no matter how large its seat padding, Senate battles can jump across party lines and cloture votes can be agonizingly tough even for a well-insured majority party. In other words, a 60th or 61st Senate seat would be infinitely more valuable for the Democrats (particularly given the vacancy in Minnesota and the current absence of Ted Kennedy) than a continued 257-178 advantage in the House.

How close are we to getting a truly comfortable Senate majority, even one that depends on centrist Democrats? Read below the fold...

Poll

52 votes Show Results

How do you feel about Senate GOP obstructionism?

52 votes Vote Now!

How do you feel about Senate GOP obstructionism?

I'm not mad, but my wallet is.

1 vote

I'm mad as hell, and I wish we didn't have to take this anymore.

14 votes

Eliminate the Senate!

4 votes

It's good; we need to slow down and analyze things.

5 votes

Yes, let's definitely slow down and watch unemployment double. It'll be fun!

1 vote

NO. MORE. AMENDMENTS.

1 vote

Bipartisan, schmipartisan. This is Congress. The Democrats won; they get to write the bill the way they want to.

22 votes

Let's compromise and learn to love each other.

4 votes

Senate 2010 pretty darn early outlook (UPDATED)

Nathaniel Ament Stone

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday January 12, 2009 · 12:22 PM PST

2009/01/12 · 12:22

Things have sure been looking up lately in the battle for a 60-vote Senate majority after 2010. Since my last diary on the subject, Kit Bond and George Voinovich have both announced their retirements, Jeb Bush has announced his disinterest in the Florida seat, polls have looked good against Burr in North Carolina and Gregg in New Hampshire, and right-wingers in Pennsylvania have been ceaselessly breathing down Arlen Specter's neck...

Suffice to say that at this point, I see us probably hitting 60 or 61 in 2010, even if the economy works against Obama and the Democrats (and it may not, if Obama can -- like FDR in 1934 -- argue that congressional Republicans are the obstacle to progress). I could see the Democrats losing a handful of House seats and governorships and still hitting 60 in the Senate by virtue of the uneven playing field.

Of course, things can and do change. But for now, the Senate looks to be the Democrats' best chance for further inroads on Capitol Hill.

Without further ado...

Poll

142 votes Show Results

What do you want to see Obama sign first on January 20/21?

142 votes Vote Now!

What do you want to see Obama sign first on January 20/21?

Economic stimulus package

40 votes

SCHIP expansion

11 votes

Ledbetter Fair Pay / Paycheck Fairness Act

11 votes

Stem cell research

7 votes

Reversing Bush executive orders

73 votes

Which Should Be the 111th's Gimme Policy Items?

Nathaniel Ament Stone

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday December 15, 2008 · 12:00 PM PST

2008/12/15 · 12:00

[Previously posted, and front-paged, at Congress Matters.]

The 110th Congress passed a number of good legislative items in 2007 and 2008 that went on to be vetoed by President Bush, among them two versions of SCHIP expansion and the Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act of 2007. These bills had relatively solid Democratic support and some conspicuous Republican crossovers, but were not able to garner veto-proof majorities. If you consider the number of good bills that passed the Dem-dominated House but died on a cloture vote in the Senate, more issues come to light, notably the Employee Free Choice Act, which nabbed a mere 51 Senate votes for cloture.

But President-elect Obama 1) won't veto these kinds of bills, and 2) will enjoy heftier Democratic majorities in both chambers. Many Senate cloture votes that had 53 or more on the "pro" side will now have the 60 necessary to shut down debate. Thus, bills like the Employee Free Choice Act, Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act, and SCHIP expansion would be easy to get through Congress come January 2009.

The dilemma becomes this...

Poll

20 votes Show Results

Best chance for a gimme (not a heady item like health care, the war, or economic recovery programs, per se) in the 111th Congress

20 votes Vote Now!

Best chance for a gimme (not a heady item like health care, the war, or economic recovery programs, per se) in the 111th Congress

Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act (vetoed by Bush)

6 votes

SCHIP expansion (vetoed by Bush)

8 votes

Employee Free Choice Act (died in Senate)

3 votes

Repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell (unaddressed since Clinton)

0 votes

Medicare Prescription Drug Price Negotiation Act (died in Senate)

2 votes

Repeal of Alternative Minimum Tax (died in Senate)

0 votes

Other

1 vote

Governors 2009/2010 outlook

Nathaniel Ament Stone

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday December 13, 2008 · 10:32 AM PST

2008/12/13 · 10:32

As promised in my last diary (jumping on the Senate '10 bandwagon), I'll address the 38 gubernatorial races occurring between now and 2010. Next year, New Jersey and Virginia do their thing, while 2010 features the other 36 states' elections for Governor.

Midterm gubernatorial elections, 36 strong and perennially influenced by the revolving door effects of term limits, are always more volatile and harder to handicap early on than congressional contests. Where most Senate and House races feature entrenched incumbents or overwhelming partisan advantages depending on the state, governor's mansions flip more easily between the parties and do so rather fluidly depending on the peculiar state-level issues at play. Hence states like Wyoming, Oklahoma, and Kansas have Democratic governors while Vermont, Connecticut, and Rhode Island remain GOP-run.

Read my race-by-race early look below the fold...

Poll

75 votes Show Results

Gov Elections of 2009

75 votes Vote Now!

Gov Elections of 2009

Democrats hold New Jersey and Virginia

48 votes

Democrats hold New Jersey but lose Virginia

14 votes

Democrats hold Virginia but lose New Jersey

2 votes

Republicans win both

11 votes

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