Things have sure been looking up lately in the battle for a 60-vote Senate majority after 2010. Since my last diary on the subject, Kit Bond and George Voinovich have both announced their retirements, Jeb Bush has announced his disinterest in the Florida seat, polls have looked good against Burr in North Carolina and Gregg in New Hampshire, and right-wingers in Pennsylvania have been ceaselessly breathing down Arlen Specter's neck...
Suffice to say that at this point, I see us probably hitting 60 or 61 in 2010, even if the economy works against Obama and the Democrats (and it may not, if Obama can -- like FDR in 1934 -- argue that congressional Republicans are the obstacle to progress). I could see the Democrats losing a handful of House seats and governorships and still hitting 60 in the Senate by virtue of the uneven playing field.
Of course, things can and do change. But for now, the Senate looks to be the Democrats' best chance for further inroads on Capitol Hill.
Without further ado...
- Ohio (open) -- George Voinovich (R) retiring after 2 terms
Outlook: Tossup
With Voinovich's retirement now official, this becomes the most exciting prospect of the three battleground state open GOP seats (this along with Missouri and Florida). Why? First, Ohio is the most Democratic of the three states, with Obama winning the state 51-47 in November (as opposed to 51-48 in Florida and a 3,903-vote loss in Missouri). Second, and more importantly, the Democratic bench is deepest in Ohio, with names like Rep. Tim Ryan, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, and Rep. Zack Space regularly thrown around as possible challengers for the seat. The Republicans are excited about former Rep. Rob Portman (whom I have always considered a tad overrated), and other than that? There's former Rep. John Kasich, who hasn't been on a ballot since 1998, and former Sen. Mike DeWine, who was pummeled out of office 56-44% (dispatched by the great Sherrod Brown) in 2006. Rumor has it Portman is about to jump in, and he is the GOP's top name in the state right now, but I think he has a real Achilles heel: Portman is an unapologetic "free trader" in this economically battered, heavily unionized Rust Belt state. Since Ryan made his name in 2002 primarily on the trade issue, a Portman vs. Ryan Senate race would be quite fascinating indeed.
Update: Yep, looks like Portman is running, and as kos points out, who better to remind Ohio voters of the agonizing Bush years than Bush's Trade Rep. and OMB director?
- Florida (open) -- Mel Martinez (R) retiring after 1 term
Outlook: Tossup
This and Missouri are roughly on par in competitiveness at this point, so Obama's Florida win is the tiebreaker for purposes of ranking the races. Republicans are still sore from former Gov. Jeb Bush's refusal to enter the race, and after him, the names of potential GOP contenders become much less interesting. The one true GOP threat who comes to mind is State Rep. Marco Rubio, former Speaker of the State House, who could, like Martinez in 2004, peel away Hispanic votes to secure a bare victory. A lot of that depends on whom the Democrats choose, and as before, nearly everyone is holding their breath to see what State CFO Alex Sink does. A Sink/Rubio race would be costly and competitive, with Rubio probably hurting the Democrats in Hispanic-heavy Osceola and Dade Counties and Sink making inroads in traditional GOP turf like Sarasota and even portions of North Florida. If Sink doesn't run, no names come to mind who have run successful statewide races. Reps. Ron Klein, Allen Boyd, Kendrick Meek, and Kathy Castor may all be looking at the race, but only Boyd has proven himself before in conservative territory, and he may be too conservative to win a Democratic primary.
Update: The Hill says Meek is in. He will have a strong base among African-Americans and in the greater Miami area to begin with, not a bad starting point in a Sunshine State Democratic primary. I have serious doubts about his electability statewide, though, as South Florida Dems don't tend to do well elsewhere unless they're named Bob Graham.
- Missouri (open) -- Kit Bond (R) retiring after 4 terms
Outlook: Tossup
As Alex Sink is the big Democratic name in Florida, Secy. of State Robin Carnahan is dominating speculation in the Show Me State. Her 2008 reelection was a landslide in this closely balanced state, which would make her odds-on favorite against a weak GOP nominee. But in Missouri, nothing is taken for granted. On the Republican side, Rep. Roy Blunt is reportedly eying the race, as are Lt. Gov. Pete Kinder and Reps. Sam Graves and Todd Akin. Even unpopular former Gov. Matt Blunt, son of Roy, is in the running. Other than Carnahan, Democratic hopes center around State Auditor Susan Montee and Atty. Gen. Chris Koster, but there is little doubt Carnahan has the nomination if she wants it.
- Nevada -- Harry Reid (D) running for 5th term
Outlook: Tossup
Like Mary Landrieu in 2008, Majority Leader Reid has the dubious distinction of being the only relatively vulnerable incumbent Democrat so far. His approvals are in the red, though his poll numbers are still narrowly afloat over GOP possibilities like former Rep. Jon Porter and Rep. Dean Heller. Heller is likely to run for Governor, conventional wisdom states, so Porter is the frontrunner right now to take on Reid, and he has the moderate baggage of having just been booted from office. Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki is no longer a realistic threat considering his criminal indictment. Reid has gotten some lucky breaks of late, but having an approval below 40% is never good. His team surely hopes to "pull a Schwarzenegger" and improve those numbers by the turn of next year.
- North Carolina -- Richard Burr (R) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Tossup
Sorry, Charlie Cook has this one really, really wrong. Burr's approvals are tepid, about where Elizabeth Dole's were in late 2007, North Carolina Democrats are stronger than ever since the death of the Solid South, and there are some real heavyweights in state office here, notably Atty. Gen. Roy Cooper and former Treasurer Richard Moore, who are polling as well against Burr as Porter is polling against Reid (within single digits, incumbent well below 50%). Other than the Battleground Trifecta of open seats, this could be the GOP's biggest worry.
- Pennsylvania -- Arlen Specter (R) running for 6th term
Outlook: Leans Republican
Specter has always stayed relatively popular and hasn't had a close race since 1992, but he seems to be facing pressure on both sides right now as hard-right Republicans resent his occasional moderation and Democrats smell blood in a Democratic-leaning state. One thing to watch will be his vote on cloture for the Employee Free Choice Act; that could signal how afraid he really is of a primary challenge à la Pat Toomey in 2004, who came shockingly close to ousting the longtime incumbent. Democrats have a good bench in the state, including Reps. Allyson Schwartz, Jason Altmire, and Patrick Murphy as well as State Auditor Jack Wagner, but no heavyweight is likely to jump in as long as they think the GOP primary challenge talk is unfounded. Should Specter start to show weakness among his base in advance of the primary, a top Democrat is likely to give it a shot.
- Kentucky -- Jim Bunning (R) running for 3rd term
Outlook: Leans Republican
Yes, I realize that Bunning's approvals are weak, and that the Dem bench is far from wanting, from Rep. Ben Chandler to Atty. Gen. Jack Conway, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, and State Auditor Crit Luallen. But call me cautious; Republicans have a record of pulling out tough Senate races in Kentucky, from Mitch McConnell in 1984, 1990, and 2008 to Bunning in 1998 and 2004. Their luck may be running out, but the Border South is definitely not trending blue in the same way or at the same rate as most of the country. This is also one of the few states where I could see Obama's help for the Democratic candidate as a neutral effect rather than a strong advantage.
- Colorado -- Michael Bennet (D) running for full term
Outlook: Leans Democratic
We assume, of course, that Ken Salazar will be confirmed as Secy. of the Interior. Bennet shows all the signs of someone who wants to run on his own merits, not a placeholder. He will be the youngest Senator if appointed and says he intends to make his name on domestic policy, especially education (where the meat of his experience lies). Since Colorado has trended blue for at least five years, most give the Democrats an early edge whether Bennet is the nominee or not.
- New Hampshire -- Judd Gregg (R) running for 4th term
Outlook: Leans Republican
Gregg was always more popular than John Sununu (or Bob Smith before him), but New Hampshire is so close now to solid blue (as the rest of New England can be dubbed) that Democrats are bullish (or cocky, whichever you prefer) about their chances of finally taking down Sen. Lottery Winner. Potential candidates include Reps. Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes (a new poll has Shea-Porter down badly while Hodes trails Gregg just 47-40), Gov. John Lynch (very popular but unlikely to run), Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, and consultant Katrina Swett, daughter of the late Rep. Tom Lantos and wife of former Rep. Dick Swett. Both Marchand and Swett bowed out in 2008 in favor of Jeanne Shaheen and may be gunning for a chance this time.
- Louisiana -- David Vitter (R) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Likely Republican
Again I disagree with Charlie Cook. On the surface, Vitter is a scandalized freshman Senator in a state with a lot of registered Democrats. But dig a little deeper and you see that this state is trending Republican -- hard -- and that Vitter has somehow managed to do the unthinkable: weather a sex scandal involving prostitutes and keep his approval ratings afloat. Like it or not, Louisiana Democrats are weaker than ever as their bench evaporates. Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu, Atty. Gen. Buddy Caldwell, and Rep. Charlie Melancon are about all that remains of the Clintonian Bayou Dems, and none of them seem liable to try for a Senate seat.
- Kansas (open) -- Sam Brownback (R) retiring after 2 full terms
Outlook: Likely Republican unless Sebelius runs
As long as Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius stays out, the Republicans are in no real danger, particularly since Kansas Dems are worried about how to keep the governor's mansion in the wake of term limits. But if she does jump in, the race soars up to the top three or four. In the meantime, Rep. Jerry Moran (R) is getting a head start, and he may soon be joined in the GOP primary by Rep. Todd Tiahrt.
And the wildcard...
- Illinois -- WTF (D)
Outlook: Who the heck knows?
Okay, so it looks like Burris will be seated. Will party leaders pressure him to retire in 2010? If he does run, will he even win the primary considering how unpopular his appointment process is with the voters and how many talented Illinois Democrats are itching for a shot? And whichever Democratic nominee makes it to the general, how battered will they be from the (probably) crowded primary? Will President Obama get involved? Will Rep. Mark Kirk (R) run and pose a real threat, or is he overrated as a statewide contender? Will voters punish the Democrats for Blagojevich or separate the events from each other? All this and more on the next As the Land of Lincoln Turns!
After this, I don't see any competitive Senate races...barring surprises, that is. Some of these surprises that would make otherwise-safe seats a lot more interesting:
Alaska (Murkowski): No real doubt that this seat will stay in Republican hands, but is all this gossip about Gov. Sarah Palin running the real deal? Color me skeptical; I think her advisers will talk her into an easy reelection bid instead (to save up that campaign cash for 2012, golly gosh!).
California (Boxer): Yes, Feinstein is a bit more popular, but Boxer's favorables are adequate and, more importantly, she leads Ahnoldt 49-40. I doubt he'll run, at that. But if he did, and he managed to hike up his approvals at the eleventh hour as he did near the end of his first term, he could keep Boxer under 55%.
Delaware (Dem open): If Rep. Mike Castle (R) runs, it becomes a tossup or leans Democratic race. Otherwise, any Democrat should be pretty solid.
Iowa (Grassley): For now, all signs are that Grassley will run again, making him safe. But if he changes his mind like Voinovich did in Ohio, this will probably be #1 or #2 on the list, as Iowa is possibly the most Democratic state represented by a Republican up in 2010.
Maryland (Mikulski): Will Mikulski retire? And if she does, will it make much of a difference for GOP hopes of a pickup? Yeah, I don't think so either.
North Dakota (Dorgan): If Gov. John Hoeven (R) runs, he will pose a threat to Dorgan, though both are exceptionally popular. Since Hoeven has twice turned down Senate races (against Dorgan in 2004 and against Conrad in 2006), I have trouble seeing him go for it this time.
OVERALL OUTLOOK
Assuming 59 in the current Senate (including Franken + Burris), and from this early vantage point, Democrats will probably get 60
Just as their five open seats in the South undid the Democrats in 2004, the Republicans have to be sweating these three battleground seats right now, hence their pursuit of star candidates wherever possible. Unlike 2008, there are some clear Democratic weaknesses (Reid, possibly the Colorado seat, North Dakota only if Hoeven runs, and the chaos in Illinois), but they are average election cycle worries at worst. The top ten seats consist of eight Republicans and two Democrats, and that is the bottom line here. Dems don't need a much improved economy by November 2010 to hit 60 in the Senate; as long as Obama gets some key items enacted in his first 22 months and retains public confidence, he can make the argument that Senate Republicans are the problem, not the solution, and we can reach "filibuster-proofedness" even in spite of possible House losses.